FAW Championship · Wales · Richmond ParkCarmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions prediction & analysis
Carmarthen Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Carmarthen Town to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Carmarthen Town 2.1 – 1.1 Ynyshir Albions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Carmarthen Town hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 20% for Ynyshir Albions.
Carmarthen Town have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.3 per game. Ynyshir Albions have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.1 for Carmarthen Town, 1.1 for Ynyshir Albions). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).
Our pick is Carmarthen Town or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Carmarthen Town to win at 1.80 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Carmarthen Town to win ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Carmarthen Town or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Half-time result | Carmarthen Town ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Carmarthen Town / FT Carmarthen Town ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.11 | – |
Form
Carmarthen Town – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ llanelli AFC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Treowen Stars | 2–4 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Afan Lido | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Newport City | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Caerau (Ely) | 4–3 | W |
Ynyshir Albions – last 6
| 31 Aug | @ Afan Lido | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | @ Newport City | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Caerphilly Athletic | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Caerau (Ely) | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Cardiff Draconians | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Mar | @ Cardiff Draconians | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carmarthen Town and Ynyshir Albions.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
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What is the prediction for Carmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions?
Our pick is Carmarthen Town or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions?
On our numbers Carmarthen Town have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ynyshir Albions 20%.
How many goals will there be in Carmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Carmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions?
Carmarthen Town vs Ynyshir Albions (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Richmond Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.