Value bet: Baglan Dragons to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLlantwit Major to win ✗42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons preview and prediction
The match
The FAW Championship sees Llantwit Major take on Baglan Dragons on Saturday 15 August, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Llantwit Major are 15th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Baglan Dragons sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Llantwit Major's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Afan Lido 0–5 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Baglan Dragons's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Swansea University 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Llantwit Major arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Llantwit Major and 1.3 for Baglan Dragons. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Llantwit Major 42%, draw 24%, Baglan Dragons 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Baglan Dragons to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Llantwit Major 1–1 Baglan Dragons. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Llantwit Major42%fair 2.39 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Baglan Dragons34%fair 2.93 · @3.25
2.75Expected goals
1.46Llantwit Major xG
1.29Baglan Dragons xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Llantwit Major 1.5 – 1.3 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Llantwit Major to win✗
42%
2.39
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Llantwit Major / FT Llantwit Major✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.72
–
Form
Llantwit Major – last 6
LLLWWW
7 Aug
@ Afan Lido
0–5
L
1 Aug
vs Swansea University
0–3
L
20 Mar
@ Afan Lido
1–4
L
10 Mar
@ Cwmbran Celtic
3–1
W
6 Mar
@ Pontypridd Town
4–0
W
3 Mar
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Baglan Dragons – last 6
LDLDLL
9 Aug
vs Swansea University
0–3
L
31 Jul
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–2
L
24 Mar
vs Cwmbran Celtic
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Ammanford AFC
0–1
L
17 Mar
@ Treowen Stars
1–4
L
0.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Llantwit Major and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers Llantwit Major have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baglan Dragons 34%.
How many goals will there be in Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is Llantwit Major 1–1 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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