Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNizhny Novgorod to win ✓69% · @1.44
Double chanceNizhny Novgorod or draw ✓90% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.87
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.86
Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula preview and prediction
The match
Nizhny Novgorod host Arsenal Tula in the First League on Friday 30 October, with kick-off at 18:15 (WAT) at Sovcombank Arena. Nizhny Novgorod are 1st with 46 points from 17 games (top of the table), while Arsenal Tula sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nizhny Novgorod's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat FC UFA 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arsenal Tula's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat KAMAZ 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Nizhny Novgorod arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.8 for Arsenal Tula. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nizhny Novgorod 69%, draw 21%, Arsenal Tula 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.87.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Arsenal Tula. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nizhny Novgorod69%fair 1.45 · @1.44
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @4.30
Arsenal Tula10%fair 10.11 · @6.30
3.20Expected goals
2.35Nizhny Novgorod xG
0.85Arsenal Tula xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Nizhny Novgorod 2.3 – 0.8 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nizhny Novgorod to win✓
69%
1.45
1.44
Double chance
Nizhny Novgorod or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.87
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.35
Half-time result
Nizhny Novgorod ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nizhny Novgorod / FT Nizhny Novgorod✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.86
–
Form
Nizhny Novgorod – last 6
WWWWWW
24 Oct
@ FC UFA
1–0
W
18 Oct
@ Ural
2–1
W
14 Oct
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
4–0
W
10 Oct
vs Enisey
5–0
W
17 Sep
vs Leningradets
6–0
W
13 Sep
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–1
W
3.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WLWLLD
24 Oct
vs KAMAZ
4–3
W
17 Oct
@ FC UFA
0–2
L
9 Oct
vs Spartak Kostroma
3–2
W
4 Oct
@ CSKA Moscow
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ Enisey
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nizhny Novgorod and Arsenal Tula.
What is the prediction for Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Nizhny Novgorod have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Arsenal Tula 10%.
How many goals will there be in Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Sovcombank Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
