First League · Russia · Stadion ShinnikShinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.0 – 1.5 Ural expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ural shade it despite being away from home – 50% to win, against 28% for Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Shinnik Yaroslavl have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Ural have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.0 for Shinnik Yaroslavl, 1.5 for Ural). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 1, Ural have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.32.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ural to win ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.86 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ural / FT Ural ✗ | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.06 | – |
Form
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
| 10 Sep | vs Torpedo Moskva | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Rotor Volgograd | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Enisey | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ FK Neftekhimik | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Arsenal Tula | 2–2 | D |
Ural – last 6
| 10 Sep | @ Luki-Energiya | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs KAMAZ | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Arsenal Tula | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Rotor Volgograd | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs FC UFA | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 4 May 2026 | Ural v Shinnik Yaroslavl | 0–1 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural?
On our numbers Shinnik Yaroslavl have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ural 50%.
How many goals will there be in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural?
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ural (First League) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Shinnik.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.