Value bet: Veles to win @ 3.05 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVeles to win ✓38% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.54
Veles vs Arsenal Tula preview and prediction
The match
Veles host Arsenal Tula in the First League on Monday 24 August, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Avangard Stadium. Veles are 5th with 31 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Arsenal Tula sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Veles's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Nizhny Novgorod 3–2 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Arsenal Tula's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Rotor Volgograd 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Veles arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Veles and 1.2 for Arsenal Tula. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Veles 38%, draw 25%, Arsenal Tula 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Veles to win at 3.05 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Veles 1–1 Arsenal Tula. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Veles38%fair 2.60 · @3.05
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.05
Arsenal Tula36%fair 2.76 · @2.36
2.49Expected goals
1.27Veles xG
1.22Arsenal Tula xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Veles 1.3 – 1.2 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Veles to win✓
38%
2.60
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.37
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Veles / FT Veles✓
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.54
–
Form
Veles – last 6
WLWWLW
19 Aug
vs Nizhny Novgorod
3–2
W
15 Aug
@ Ska-khabarovsk
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs Leningradets
2–1
W
3 Aug
vs Rotor Volgograd
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Enisey
1–4
L
19 Jul
vs Chelyabinsk
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WDDWLL
20 Aug
vs Rotor Volgograd
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Leningradets
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Shinnik Yaroslavl
2–2
D
2 Aug
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ FC Sochi
0–5
L
19 Jul
vs FK Neftekhimik
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Veles and Arsenal Tula.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Veles vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Veles have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal Tula 36%.
How many goals will there be in Veles vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Veles vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Veles 1–1 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Veles vs Arsenal Tula?
Veles vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Avangard Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
