Value bet: Leningradets to win @ 3.62 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArsenal Tula to win ✗45% · @2.03
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal Tula travel to Rostec Arena in the First League on Saturday 15 August (14:00 WAT) to face Leningradets. Leningradets are 13th with 18 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Arsenal Tula sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leningradets's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Veles 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Arsenal Tula's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Arsenal Tula arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Leningradets and 1.3 for Arsenal Tula. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leningradets 33%, draw 22%, Arsenal Tula 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.89.
Value angle: Leningradets to win at 3.62 – 33% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Leningradets 1–1 Arsenal Tula. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leningradets33%fair 3.00 · @3.62
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.22
Arsenal Tula45%fair 2.24 · @2.03
2.45Expected goals
1.11Leningradets xG
1.34Arsenal Tula xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%
From our goals model: Leningradets 1.1 – 1.3 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal Tula to win✗
45%
2.24
2.03
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.89
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.19
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal Tula / FT Arsenal Tula✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.60
–
Form
Leningradets – last 6
LWDLLL
9 Aug
@ Veles
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs FC Sochi
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Ural
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Shinnik Yaroslavl
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ FC UFA
0–3
L
4 Jul
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
DWLLWD
8 Aug
@ Shinnik Yaroslavl
2–2
D
2 Aug
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ FC Sochi
0–5
L
19 Jul
vs FK Neftekhimik
0–1
L
13 Jul
vs Tekstilshchik
2–1
W
4 Jul
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leningradets and Arsenal Tula.
What is the prediction for Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Leningradets have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal Tula 45%.
How many goals will there be in Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Leningradets 1–1 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?
Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Rostec Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
