Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗59% · @1.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.96
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Cerro take on Racing Montevideo on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Racing Montevideo sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Liverpool Montevideo 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: DDDDW Most recently they drew with Penarol 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Racing Montevideo 1–0 Cerro.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.7 for Cerro and 1.5 for Racing Montevideo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 21%, draw 20%, Racing Montevideo 59%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Cerro 0–2 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro21%fair 4.86 · @4.60
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.20
Racing Montevideo59%fair 1.69 · @1.78
2.18Expected goals
0.70Cerro xG
1.48Racing Montevideo xG
48%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.7 – 1.5 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Racing Montevideo 59%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–2 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
