Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 2.86 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro Largo to win ✗38% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.10
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
Cerro Largo host Defensor Sporting in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 13 July, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Cerro Largo are 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerro Largo's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Cerro Largo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro Largo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Cerro Largo and 1.0 for Defensor Sporting. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro Largo 38%, draw 29%, Defensor Sporting 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Cerro Largo to win at 2.86 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Cerro Largo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Largo38%fair 2.66 · @2.86
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting34%fair 2.97 · @2.45
2.18Expected goals
1.14Cerro Largo xG
1.04Defensor Sporting xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.1 – 1.0 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-23%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+24%
Our expected goals here
1.23
1.10
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 13 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
