Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗65% · @1.65
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✗84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.89
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro preview and prediction
The match
Liverpool Montevideo host Cerro in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 12 July, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio Belvedere. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Cerro sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with Cerro Largo 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerro's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Penarol 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Liverpool Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 February 2026, finished Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.6 for Cerro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 65%, draw 20%, Cerro 16%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Liverpool Montevideo to win at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo65%fair 1.55 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.40
Cerro16%fair 6.34 · @5.40
2.28Expected goals
1.66Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.62Cerro xG
48%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 – 0.6 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
65%
1.55
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cerro 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
