Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.70 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWanderers to win ✓49% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.96
Wanderers vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Wanderers host Progreso in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT). Wanderers are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Wanderers's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Danubio 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Progreso's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Albion FC 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Wanderers arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Wanderers and 1.0 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Progreso to win at 3.70 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Wanderers 1–1 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wanderers49%fair 2.06 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.15
Progreso29%fair 3.42 · @3.70
2.42Expected goals
1.41Wanderers xG
1.01Progreso xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–09%
From our goals model: Wanderers 1.4 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wanderers to win✓
49%
2.06
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wanderers / FT Wanderers✓
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.96
–
Form
Wanderers – last 6
DWDDWL
5 Jun
vs Danubio
0–0
D
31 May
@ Juventud
5–2
W
24 May
vs Deportivo Maldonado
1–1
D
17 May
@ Albion FC
0–0
D
8 May
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LWLLLD
7 Jun
vs Albion FC
1–2
L
30 May
@ Danubio
2–1
W
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wanderers and Progreso.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Wanderers vs Progreso?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progreso 29%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Progreso?
Wanderers vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
