Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Spain to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpain to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.67
Portugal vs Spain preview and prediction
The match
Spain travel to AT&T Stadium in the World Cup on Monday 6 July (20:00 WAT) to face Portugal.
Form guide
Portugal's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Croatia 2–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Spain's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Austria 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Portugal and 1.7 for Spain. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portugal 20%, draw 22%, Spain 58%.
Safer route: Spain or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Spain to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Spain or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Portugal 0–1 Spain. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugal20%fair 5.03 · @3.80
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Spain58%fair 1.71 · @1.90
2.57Expected goals
0.86Portugal xG
1.71Spain xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Portugal 0.9 – 1.7 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain to win✓
58%
1.71
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Spain or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain / FT Spain✗
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.67
–
Form
Portugal – last 6
WDWDWW
3 Jul
vs Croatia
2–1
W
28 Jun
@ Colombia
0–0
D
23 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
5–0
W
17 Jun
vs Congo DR
1–1
D
10 Jun
vs Nigeria
2–1
W
6 Jun
vs Chile
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Spain – last 6
WWWDWD
2 Jul
vs Austria
3–0
W
27 Jun
@ Uruguay
1–0
W
21 Jun
vs Saudi Arabia
4–0
W
15 Jun
vs Cape Verde Islands
0–0
D
9 Jun
@ Peru
3–1
W
4 Jun
vs Iraq
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugal and Spain.
Our pick is Spain or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Portugal vs Spain?
On our numbers Portugal have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spain 58%.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Spain?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Spain?
Our predicted score is Portugal 0–1 Spain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Portugal vs Spain?
Portugal vs Spain (World Cup) kicks off on Monday 6 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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