Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Farense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFarense to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceFarense or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.89
Farense vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Farense take on Penafiel on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT). Farense are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Farense's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat AD Marco 09 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Leça 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Farense and 0.9 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Farense 61%, draw 24%, Penafiel 15%.
Safer route: Farense or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Farense to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Farense or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Farense 1–0 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Farense61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.10
Penafiel15%fair 6.64 · @3.60
2.86Expected goals
1.96Farense xG
0.90Penafiel xG
52%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Farense 2.0 – 0.9 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Farense or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Farense ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.89
–
Form
Farense – last 6
WWWWDL
17 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Feirense
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Chaves
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Sacavenense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ AVS
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Sporting CP B
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
LLWWWW
17 Oct
vs Leça
0–1
L
9 Oct
vs AVS
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Farense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Farense or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Farense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Farense have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 15%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Farense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Farense 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Farense vs Penafiel?
Farense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
