Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✓39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · fair 1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.42
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
Penafiel travel to Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 12 September (14:00 WAT) to face Felgueiras 1932. Felgueiras 1932 are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Felgueiras 1932's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Vizela 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Penafiel's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Academica 4–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Felgueiras 1932 0–0 Penafiel.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.2 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 45%.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 3.00 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 74% chance. Predicted score: Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Felgueiras 193235%fair 2.83 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.80
Penafiel39%fair 2.58 · @3.00
2.30Expected goals
1.12Felgueiras 1932 xG
1.18Penafiel xG
45%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Felgueiras 1932 1.1 – 1.2 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 74% chance.
Who will win Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Felgueiras 1932 have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penafiel 39%.
How many goals will there be in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
