Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Leixoes to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeixoes to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceLeixoes or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.03
Leixoes vs Amarante preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Leixoes take on Amarante on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT). Leixoes are 12th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Amarante sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leixoes's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Portimonense 2–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Amarante's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Benfica B 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Leixoes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Leixoes and 0.6 for Amarante. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leixoes 59%, draw 21%, Amarante 21%.
Safer route: Leixoes or draw (79%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Leixoes to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leixoes or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–0 Amarante. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes59%fair 1.71 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.10
Amarante21%fair 4.84 · @3.80
1.88Expected goals
1.30Leixoes xG
0.58Amarante xG
46%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.3 – 0.6 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win✓
59%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Leixoes or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes✓
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.03
–
Form
Leixoes – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Aug
@ Portimonense
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs União de Leiria
2–4
L
16 Aug
vs Tondela
1–0
W
10 Aug
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Casa Pia
6–2
W
29 Jul
vs Vizela
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Amarante – last 6
WDLLLL
30 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Vizela
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Tondela
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
22 Jul
@ Chaves
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Amarante.
Our pick is Leixoes or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leixoes vs Amarante?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Amarante 21%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Amarante?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–0 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Amarante?
Leixoes vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
