União de Leiria vs Portimonense prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
União de Leiria or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: União de Leiria to win @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnião de Leiria to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceUnião de Leiria or draw ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.86
União de Leiria vs Portimonense preview and prediction
The match
União de Leiria host Portimonense in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). União de Leiria are 5th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Portimonense sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
União de Leiria's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Tondela 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Portimonense's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Leixoes 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for União de Leiria and 0.8 for Portimonense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: União de Leiria 57%, draw 22%, Portimonense 21%.
Safer route: União de Leiria or draw (79%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.67.
Value angle: União de Leiria to win at 1.85 – 57% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was União de Leiria or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: União de Leiria 1–0 Portimonense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
União de Leiria57%fair 1.74 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.25
Portimonense21%fair 4.77 · @3.70
2.38Expected goals
1.57União de Leiria xG
0.81Portimonense xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: União de Leiria 1.6 – 0.8 Portimonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✓
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Double chance
União de Leiria or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✓
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.86
–
Form
União de Leiria – last 6
WWLLLW
28 Aug
vs Tondela
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ Vizela
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ Las Palmas
2–3
L
15 Jul
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Portimonense – last 6
LDWWLL
29 Aug
vs Leixoes
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Benfica B
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Vizela
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ Penafiel
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
1–2
L
15 Jul
vs Rio Ave
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União de Leiria and Portimonense.
What is the prediction for União de Leiria vs Portimonense?
Our pick is União de Leiria or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Portimonense?
On our numbers União de Leiria have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Portimonense 21%.
How many goals will there be in União de Leiria vs Portimonense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União de Leiria vs Portimonense?
Our predicted score is União de Leiria 1–0 Portimonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is União de Leiria vs Portimonense?
União de Leiria vs Portimonense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
