Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 3.55 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAcademica to win ✗46% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.35
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
Lusitânia Lourosa travel to Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 29 August (14:00 WAT) to face Academica. Academica are 6th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Academica's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Tondela 2–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Torreense 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Academica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Academica and 1.1 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Lusitânia Lourosa to win at 3.55 – 31% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Academica 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Academica46%fair 2.19 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.96
Lusitânia Lourosa31%fair 3.24 · @3.55
2.44Expected goals
1.37Academica xG
1.07Lusitânia Lourosa xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Academica 1.4 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win✗
46%
2.19
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.35
–
Form
Academica – last 6
WWWDDW
21 Aug
@ Tondela
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Feirense
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Chaves
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ União Santarém
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ FC Porto B
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
DWWLLD
22 Aug
vs Torreense
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Amarante
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs FC Porto B
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Paredes
2–4
L
1 Aug
vs Arouca
0–2
L
29 Jul
@ Leça
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Academica have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lusitânia Lourosa 31%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Academica 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
