Value bet: Tondela to win @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTondela to win ✗58% · @1.88
Double chanceTondela or draw ✗82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
Tondela vs Academica preview and prediction
The match
Academica travel to Estádio João Cardoso in the Segunda Liga on Friday 21 August (20:15 WAT) to face Tondela. Tondela are 7th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Academica sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tondela's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Leixoes 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Academica's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Feirense 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Academica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 July 2026, finished Tondela 2–1 Academica.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Tondela and 0.8 for Academica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Tondela to win at 1.88 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Tondela 1–0 Academica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tondela58%fair 1.72 · @1.88
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.30
Academica18%fair 5.51 · @3.95
2.50Expected goals
1.69Tondela xG
0.82Academica xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.7 – 0.8 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tondela vs Academica?
On our numbers Tondela have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Academica 18%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Academica?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Academica?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–0 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Academica?
Tondela vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
