Value bet: VfL Wolfsburg to win @ 2.45 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVfL Wolfsburg to win ✗46% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.73
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg preview and prediction
The match
The 2. Bundesliga sees FC St. Pauli take on VfL Wolfsburg on Saturday 12 September, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Millerntor-Stadion. FC St. Pauli are 9th with 12 points from 11 games (in the top half), while VfL Wolfsburg sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
FC St. Pauli's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
VfL Wolfsburg's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Energie Cottbus 4–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
VfL Wolfsburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.7 for FC St. Pauli and 2.0 for VfL Wolfsburg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC St. Pauli 34%, draw 20%, VfL Wolfsburg 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.44.
Value angle: VfL Wolfsburg to win at 2.45 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: FC St. Pauli 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC St. Pauli34%fair 2.96 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.60
VfL Wolfsburg46%fair 2.18 · @2.45
3.63Expected goals
1.66FC St. Pauli xG
1.97VfL Wolfsburg xG
69%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
1–36%
0–15%
From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.7 – 2.0 VfL Wolfsburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VfL Wolfsburg to win✗
46%
2.18
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.44
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
VfL Wolfsburg ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VfL Wolfsburg / FT VfL Wolfsburg✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.73
–
Form
FC St. Pauli – last 6
DLLDDD
4 Sep
@ Arminia Bielefeld
2–2
D
30 Aug
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
VfL Wolfsburg – last 6
DWDWDW
5 Sep
vs Energie Cottbus
4–4
D
29 Aug
@ Karlsruher SC
5–2
W
24 Aug
@ Altglienicke
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Hannover 96
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–0
D
31 Jul
vs Telstar
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg.
What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and VfL Wolfsburg 46%.
How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
