Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Penybont to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenybont to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chancePenybont or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.31
Cardiff MET vs Penybont preview and prediction
The match
Penybont travel to Cyncoed Campus in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October (13:30 WAT) to face Cardiff MET. Cardiff MET are 8th with 25 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Penybont sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Cardiff MET's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Colwyn Bay 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penybont's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Afan Lido 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Penybont arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Cardiff MET and 2.0 for Penybont. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cardiff MET 15%, draw 22%, Penybont 62%.
Safer route: Penybont or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Penybont to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penybont or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cardiff MET 0–2 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cardiff MET15%fair 6.50 · @3.80
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.30
Penybont62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
2.96Expected goals
0.92Cardiff MET xG
2.04Penybont xG
60%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Cardiff MET 0.9 – 2.0 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win✓
62%
1.61
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Penybont or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.31
–
Form
Cardiff MET – last 6
DWLWWD
23 Oct
@ Colwyn Bay
2–2
D
16 Oct
vs Ynyshir Albions
4–0
W
9 Oct
vs Trefelin
1–3
L
3 Oct
@ Llandudno
1–0
W
29 Sep
vs Haverfordwest County AFC
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Caernarfon Town
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WWLWWW
18 Oct
@ Afan Lido
3–2
W
9 Oct
vs Barry Town
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Airbus UK
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Ammanford AFC
5–1
W
15 Sep
vs Briton Ferry
3–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cardiff MET and Penybont.
What is the prediction for Cardiff MET vs Penybont?
Our pick is Penybont or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cardiff MET vs Penybont?
On our numbers Cardiff MET have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penybont 62%.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff MET vs Penybont?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff MET vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Cardiff MET 0–2 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Cardiff MET vs Penybont?
Cardiff MET vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Cyncoed Campus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
