Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Holywell to win @ 2.90 – our chance 41% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHolywell to win ✗41% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.75
Holywell vs Trefelin preview and prediction
The match
Trefelin travel to Bartons North Wales Stadium in the Premier League on Friday 4 September (19:45 WAT) to face Holywell. Holywell are 16th with 2 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Trefelin sit 15th on 6 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Holywell's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Airbus UK 2–6 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 4.3 conceded.
Trefelin's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Haverfordwest County AFC 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.0 for Holywell and 1.9 for Trefelin. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Holywell to win at 2.90 – 41% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Holywell 2–1 Trefelin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Holywell41%fair 2.43 · @2.90
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.65
Trefelin37%fair 2.67 · @2.05
3.81Expected goals
1.95Holywell xG
1.86Trefelin xG
65%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–18%
2–18%
1–27%
2–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Holywell 2.0 – 1.9 Trefelin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Holywell to win✗
41%
2.43
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.53
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
34%
2.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Holywell / FT Holywell✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.75
–
Form
Holywell – last 6
LLLLLL
31 Aug
@ Airbus UK
2–6
L
28 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
3–5
L
21 Aug
vs Barry Town
1–3
L
14 Aug
@ Llandudno
1–3
L
7 Aug
vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Cardiff MET
1–6
L
1.5Scored / game
4.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Trefelin – last 6
LDLLLL
31 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Ammanford AFC
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–6
L
7 Aug
vs Llandudno
0–4
L
31 Jul
@ Colwyn Bay
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holywell and Trefelin.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Holywell vs Trefelin?
On our numbers Holywell have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Trefelin 37%.
How many goals will there be in Holywell vs Trefelin?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holywell vs Trefelin?
Our predicted score is Holywell 2–1 Trefelin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Holywell vs Trefelin?
Holywell vs Trefelin (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bartons North Wales Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
