Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estrela
Benfica
Estrela vs Benfica prediction & analysis
Benfica to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Estrela 0.9 – 2.6 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Benfica travel as clear favourites – 73% to win, against 8% for Estrela.
Estrela have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Benfica have 18 points from their last 6 (6W 0D 0L), averaging 3.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Benfica come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.5 goals (0.9 for Estrela, 2.6 for Benfica). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10%), 0–3 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Benfica to win at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.38. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.80 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Benfica to win ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.22 |
| Double chance | Benfica or draw ✓ | 92% | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Half-time result | Benfica ahead at half-time ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Benfica / FT Benfica ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 10% | 9.65 | – |
Form
Estrela – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Moreirense | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Casa Pia | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Fazendense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | @ Rio Ave | 3–3 | D |
Benfica – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Lech Poznan | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Nov | vs Alverca | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Oct | vs GIL Vicente | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Santa Clara | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | @ Omonia Nicosia | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Celtic | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Benfica.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hub →Estoril
Maritimo
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
75%@1.25
FT
Santa Clara1
GIL Vicente2
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
65%@1.50
✗
FT
Vitória SC1
FC Porto2
2FC Porto to win
69%@1.53
✓
FT
Rio Ave0
SC Braga1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
76%@1.22
✗
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
On our numbers Estrela have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Benfica 73%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.