Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Estrela to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstrela to win ✗66% · @1.75
Double chanceEstrela or draw ✗87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.98
Estrela vs Casa Pia preview and prediction
The match
Estrela host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estrela's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Fazendense 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Casa Pia's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Alpendorada 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Estrela 1–2 Casa Pia. Across their last 2 meetings Estrela have won 1, Casa Pia 1, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Estrela and 0.9 for Casa Pia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estrela 66%, draw 21%, Casa Pia 13%.
Safer route: Estrela or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Estrela to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estrela or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estrela 2–0 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estrela66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.40
Casa Pia13%fair 7.86 · @4.50
3.06Expected goals
2.18Estrela xG
0.88Casa Pia xG
54%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Estrela 2.2 – 0.9 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Estrela or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estrela have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estrela 2–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
