Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Arouca to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlverca to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.00
Alverca vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Alverca take on Arouca on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at FC Alverca Sports Complex. Alverca are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Alverca's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Tondela 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Arouca's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with CF Os Belenenses 3–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Alverca and 1.2 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alverca 45%, draw 22%, Arouca 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Arouca to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alverca 1–1 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alverca45%fair 2.24 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Arouca33%fair 3.04 · @3.30
2.69Expected goals
1.47Alverca xG
1.22Arouca xG
62%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.5 – 1.2 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
45%
2.24
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.00
–
Form
Alverca – last 6
DWWWLD
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 6
DWDLDW
18 Oct
@ CF Os Belenenses
3–3
D
11 Oct
vs Estrela
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sporting CP
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Santa Clara
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Estoril
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Maritimo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Arouca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
On our numbers Alverca have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arouca 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
