Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Porto to win ✓65% · @1.30
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓82% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.14
Maritimo vs FC Porto preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Maritimo take on FC Porto on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Marítimo. Maritimo are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while FC Porto sit 1st on 33 points (top of the table). A gap of 25 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Maritimo's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with GIL Vicente 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
FC Porto's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Deportivo La Coruna 3–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
FC Porto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Maritimo and 2.0 for FC Porto. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maritimo 18%, draw 18%, FC Porto 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 52% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Porto to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Maritimo 0–2 FC Porto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maritimo18%fair 5.70 · @9.00
Draw18%fair 5.69 · @5.00
FC Porto65%fair 1.54 · @1.30
2.93Expected goals
0.91Maritimo xG
2.02FC Porto xG
52%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Maritimo 0.9 – 2.0 FC Porto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
65%
1.54
1.30
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.14
–
Form
Maritimo – last 6
DLLLDW
19 Sep
@ GIL Vicente
1–1
D
14 Sep
@ Moreirense
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Benfica
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Arouca
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Academico Viseu
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Famalicao
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FC Porto – last 6
WWWLWW
2 Oct
@ Deportivo La Coruna
3–1
W
20 Sep
vs Benfica
3–1
W
12 Sep
@ Casa Pia
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Manchester City
0–2
L
4 Sep
vs Moreirense
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Academico Viseu
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maritimo and FC Porto.
Our pick is FC Porto to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Maritimo vs FC Porto?
On our numbers Maritimo have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 18% and FC Porto 65%.
How many goals will there be in Maritimo vs FC Porto?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Our predicted score is Maritimo 0–2 FC Porto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Maritimo vs FC Porto (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Marítimo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
