Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceSanta Clara or draw ✓89% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓16% · fair 6.28
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara preview and prediction
The match
Santa Clara travel to Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 10 October (15:30 WAT) to face Casa Pia. Casa Pia are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Santa Clara sit 4th on 21 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Casa Pia's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Estoril 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Santa Clara's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with SC Braga 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santa Clara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Casa Pia and 1.8 for Santa Clara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa Pia 11%, draw 23%, Santa Clara 65%.
Safer route: Santa Clara or draw (89%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Santa Clara to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Santa Clara or draw – a 89% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa Pia11%fair 8.78 · @4.20
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.20
Santa Clara65%fair 1.53 · @1.85
2.43Expected goals
0.62Casa Pia xG
1.81Santa Clara xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–39%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 0.6 – 1.8 Santa Clara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✓
65%
1.53
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Santa Clara ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
16%
6.28
–
Form
Casa Pia – last 6
WLDLLL
20 Sep
@ Estoril
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
6 Sep
@ Vitória SC
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Moreirense
0–1
L
24 Aug
@ GIL Vicente
0–2
L
17 Aug
vs Benfica
0–7
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Santa Clara – last 6
DWWDWW
20 Sep
vs SC Braga
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Arouca
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Rio Ave
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ Alverca
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Famalicao
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Academico Viseu
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our pick is Santa Clara or draw with a 89% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santa Clara 65%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
