Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Nacional vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
Nacional host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Nacional are 13th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Alverca sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nacional's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Alverca's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to SC Braga 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Nacional and 1.4 for Alverca. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional 42%, draw 24%, Alverca 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Nacional to win at 2.60 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nacional 1–1 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional42%fair 2.41 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Alverca34%fair 2.94 · @2.62
2.90Expected goals
1.53Nacional xG
1.37Alverca xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.5 – 1.4 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional to win✗
42%
2.41
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional / FT Nacional✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Form
Nacional – last 6
LLLWDL
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Estrela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
LDLDLW
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Sporting CP
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Estrela
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and Alverca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional vs Alverca?
On our numbers Nacional have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alverca 34%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Alverca?
Nacional vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
