Value bet: Moreirense to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasa Pia to win ✗37% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Casa Pia vs Moreirense preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Casa Pia take on Moreirense on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Casa Pia are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Moreirense sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Casa Pia's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to GIL Vicente 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Moreirense's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Arouca 0–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Casa Pia and 1.5 for Moreirense. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 47% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa Pia 37%, draw 25%, Moreirense 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Moreirense to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa Pia37%fair 2.68 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
Moreirense37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
2.91Expected goals
1.46Casa Pia xG
1.45Moreirense xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 1.5 – 1.5 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moreirense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
