Value bet: Maritimo to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArouca to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.15
Arouca vs Maritimo preview and prediction
The match
Arouca host Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Maritimo sit 15th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arouca's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to FC Porto 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Maritimo's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Academico Viseu 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Arouca and 1.2 for Maritimo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arouca 41%, draw 24%, Maritimo 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Maritimo to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Maritimo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Maritimo35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
2.48Expected goals
1.31Arouca xG
1.17Maritimo xG
59%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.3 – 1.2 Maritimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
41%
2.43
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.15
–
Form
Arouca – last 6
LWWWLD
23 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Moreirense
4–0
W
8 Aug
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Maritimo – last 6
DWWDDW
22 Aug
vs Academico Viseu
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Famalicao
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Casa Pia
1–0
W
29 Jul
vs Estrela
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Machico
0–0
D
22 Jul
vs Camacha
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Maritimo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Maritimo?
On our numbers Arouca have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Maritimo 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Maritimo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Maritimo?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Maritimo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca vs Maritimo (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
