Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 2.66 – our chance 46% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✗46% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.73
Alverca vs Santa Clara preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Alverca take on Santa Clara on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at FC Alverca Sports Complex. Alverca are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Santa Clara sit 4th on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Alverca's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Santa Clara's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Famalicao 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santa Clara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Alverca 1–1 Santa Clara.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Alverca and 1.4 for Santa Clara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alverca 31%, draw 22%, Santa Clara 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Santa Clara to win at 2.66 – 46% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Alverca 1–1 Santa Clara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alverca31%fair 3.19 · @2.66
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Santa Clara46%fair 2.16 · @2.66
2.51Expected goals
1.10Alverca xG
1.41Santa Clara xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.1 – 1.4 Santa Clara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alverca vs Santa Clara?
On our numbers Alverca have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Santa Clara 46%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–1 Santa Clara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Alverca vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
