Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitória SC to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceVitória SC or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.16
Vitória SC vs Nacional preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Vitória SC take on Nacional on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Vitória SC are 14th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vitória SC's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Nacional's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Estoril 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vitória SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Vitória SC and 0.9 for Nacional. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vitória SC 65%, draw 20%, Nacional 15%.
Safer route: Vitória SC or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vitória SC to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vitória SC 2–0 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitória SC65%fair 1.55 · @1.70
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.50
Nacional15%fair 6.66 · @4.60
3.00Expected goals
2.09Vitória SC xG
0.91Nacional xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Vitória SC 2.1 – 0.9 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitória SC to win✓
65%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Vitória SC or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Vitória SC ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitória SC / FT Vitória SC✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.16
–
Form
Vitória SC – last 6
LLWDWW
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Arouca
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Chaves
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Al-Ahli Jeddah
3–1
W
18 Jul
vs Academica
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 6
WDLDDD
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Estrela
0–2
L
22 Jul
vs Leganes
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Tondela
1–1
D
18 Jul
vs Leixoes
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória SC and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Our pick is Vitória SC to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Nacional?
On our numbers Vitória SC have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Nacional 15%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória SC vs Nacional?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Vitória SC 2–0 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Vitória SC vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
