Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Porto to win ✓67% · @1.20
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.60
FC Porto vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees FC Porto take on Arouca on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Dragão. FC Porto are 1st with 33 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FC Porto's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Rio Ave 2–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arouca's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Moreirense 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished FC Porto 3–1 Arouca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for FC Porto and 0.6 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Porto 67%, draw 19%, Arouca 13%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Porto to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FC Porto 1–0 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Porto67%fair 1.49 · @1.20
Draw19%fair 5.13 · @6.00
Arouca13%fair 7.43 · @12.00
2.25Expected goals
1.70FC Porto xG
0.55Arouca xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: FC Porto 1.7 – 0.6 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FC Porto to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Porto vs Arouca?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arouca 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 1–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Arouca?
FC Porto vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
