Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Porto to win ✓74% · @1.18
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓92% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓13% · fair 7.74
FC Porto vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
FC Porto host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Dragão. FC Porto are 1st with 33 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Alverca sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FC Porto's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Torreense 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alverca's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Sporting CP B 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.4 for FC Porto and 0.7 for Alverca. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Porto 74%, draw 19%, Alverca 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: FC Porto 2–0 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Porto74%fair 1.36 · @1.18
Draw19%fair 5.33 · @6.20
Alverca8%fair 13.03 · @17.00
3.10Expected goals
2.40FC Porto xG
0.70Alverca xG
51%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.4 – 0.7 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
74%
1.36
1.18
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.55
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✓
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
13%
7.74
–
Form
FC Porto – last 6
WWDLDW
1 Aug
vs Torreense
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Aston Villa
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Sporting CP
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
0–1
L
9 Apr
vs Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs VfB Stuttgart
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
WLWWDD
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Mafra
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Estoril
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs CF Os Belenenses
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Tondela
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Alverca.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win FC Porto vs Alverca?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alverca 8%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Alverca?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–0 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Alverca?
FC Porto vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
