FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗62% · @1.66
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.31
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 preview and prediction
The match
FSV Mainz 05 host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Mewa Arena. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th with 10 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while SC Paderborn 07 sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Krieschow 9–0 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Paderborn 07's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Phönix Lübeck 4–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.9 for SC Paderborn 07. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FSV Mainz 0562%fair 1.60 · @1.66
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.90
SC Paderborn 0715%fair 6.70 · @4.75
2.98Expected goals
2.05FSV Mainz 05 xG
0.92SC Paderborn 07 xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.1 – 0.9 SC Paderborn 07 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✗
62%
1.60
1.66
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.50
Half-time result
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.31
–
Form
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
WWWDWW
23 Aug
@ Krieschow
9–0
W
15 Aug
vs Bournemouth
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Paris FC
4–0
W
1 Aug
@ Udinese
3–3
D
31 Jul
vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
3–0
W
3.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
SC Paderborn 07 – last 6
WDWDDW
23 Aug
@ Phönix Lübeck
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Werder Bremen
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ VfL Osnabrück
2–0
W
25 May
vs VfL Wolfsburg
1–1
D
21 May
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–0
D
17 May
@ SV Darmstadt 98
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and SC Paderborn 07 15%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
