Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · SpainXerez vs Badajoz prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.83 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Badajoz to win @ 3.30 – our chance 41% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Xerez 0.7 – 0.8 Badajoz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Badajoz shade it despite being away from home – 41% to win, against 33% for Xerez.
Xerez have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 0.2 and conceding 0.2 per game. Badajoz have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. Badajoz come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.5 goals (0.7 for Xerez, 0.8 for Badajoz). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (22%), 0–1 (18%), 1–0 (15%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is close to our fair price of 1.83. For a bigger price, Badajoz to win at 3.30 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Badajoz to win ✓ | 41% | 2.44 | 3.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 29% | 3.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 18% | 5.49 | – |
Form
Xerez – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Estepona | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | @ Portuense | 0–0 | D |
| 17 May | @ Conquense | 0–0 | D |
| 3 May | vs Ucam Murcia | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Xerez Deportivo | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Apr | vs Puente Genil | 0–1 | L |
Badajoz – last 6
| 6 Sep | vs Tenerife II | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Jun | @ Cuarte | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Jun | vs Cuarte | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Jun | vs Moralo | 0–0 | D |
| 31 May | @ Moralo | 2–0 | W |
| 24 May | vs Jaraíz | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Badajoz.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Real Betis II | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sanluqueño | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Xerez vs Badajoz?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Xerez vs Badajoz?
On our numbers Xerez have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Badajoz 41%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Badajoz?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Xerez vs Badajoz?
Xerez vs Badajoz (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.