Value bet: Poblense to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.21
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense preview and prediction
The match
Lorca Deportiva host Poblense in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT). Lorca Deportiva are 8th with 13 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Poblense sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lorca Deportiva's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Real Murcia II 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Poblense's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to AD Ceuta FC 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Lorca Deportiva and 1.1 for Poblense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Poblense to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Lorca Deportiva 1–1 Poblense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorca Deportiva45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Poblense33%fair 3.06 · @3.50
2.38Expected goals
1.32Lorca Deportiva xG
1.06Poblense xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 1.1 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorca Deportiva to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.21
–
Form
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
LDWLWD
25 Oct
@ Real Murcia II
2–3
L
18 Oct
vs Atlético Baleares
2–2
D
11 Oct
@ La Nucía
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Poblense – last 6
LWDWLW
29 Oct
vs AD Ceuta FC
1–2
L
25 Oct
vs Peña Deportiva
1–0
W
18 Oct
@ Yeclano
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs Castellón II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Poblense.
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Poblense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–1 Poblense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
