Arosa travel to Estadio Las Llanas in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 24 October (17:30 WAT) to face Sestao River. Sestao River are 1st with 25 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Arosa sit 15th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sestao River's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Marino de Luanco 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arosa's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Llanera 4–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Sestao River arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Sestao River and 0.7 for Arosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sestao River 68%, draw 20%, Arosa 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sestao River to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Sestao River 2–0 Arosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sestao River68%fair 1.47 · @1.44
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.75
Arosa12%fair 8.04 · @6.00
2.79Expected goals
2.05Sestao River xG
0.74Arosa xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sestao River 2.1 – 0.7 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sestao River to win✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Double chance
Sestao River or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Sestao River ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sestao River / FT Sestao River✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.74
–
Form
Sestao River – last 6
WWDWWW
18 Oct
@ Marino de Luanco
1–0
W
14 Oct
vs Salamanca UDS
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Gernika
2–1
W
30 Sep
vs Terrassa
4–1
W
26 Sep
vs Atlético Astorga
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
WDDLDL
18 Oct
vs Llanera
4–1
W
11 Oct
vs Bergantiños
2–2
D
4 Oct
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
2–5
L
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sestao River and Arosa.
Our pick is Sestao River to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sestao River vs Arosa?
On our numbers Sestao River have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Arosa 12%.
How many goals will there be in Sestao River vs Arosa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sestao River vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Sestao River 2–0 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sestao River vs Arosa?
Sestao River vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Las Llanas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
