Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Portugalete to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBasconia to win ✗38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Basconia vs Portugalete preview and prediction
The match
Basconia host Portugalete in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT). Basconia are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Portugalete sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Basconia's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Racing Santander II 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Portugalete's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Eibar II 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Basconia and 1.3 for Portugalete. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Portugalete to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Basconia 1–1 Portugalete. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Basconia38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Portugalete38%fair 2.63 · @2.90
2.64Expected goals
1.32Basconia xG
1.32Portugalete xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Basconia 1.3 – 1.3 Portugalete expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Basconia to win✗
38%
2.63
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Basconia / FT Basconia✗
21%
4.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.61
–
Form
Basconia – last 6
LDDWDW
17 Oct
@ Racing Santander II
1–3
L
10 Oct
@ Eibar II
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Llanera
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Marino de Luanco
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Arosa
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Atlético Astorga
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portugalete – last 6
DWLLWD
17 Oct
vs Eibar II
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Amorebieta
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs Deportivo Alavés II
0–2
L
27 Sep
@ Bergantiños
2–3
L
19 Sep
vs Coruxo
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Compostela
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Basconia and Portugalete.
What is the prediction for Basconia vs Portugalete?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Basconia vs Portugalete?
On our numbers Basconia have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Portugalete 38%.
How many goals will there be in Basconia vs Portugalete?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Basconia vs Portugalete?
Our predicted score is Basconia 1–1 Portugalete, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Basconia vs Portugalete?
Basconia vs Portugalete (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
