Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Atlético Astorga or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 58% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +74%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗58% · @3.00
Double chanceAtlético Astorga or draw ✗81% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete preview and prediction
The match
Atlético Astorga host Portugalete in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Atlético Astorga are 17th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Portugalete sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atlético Astorga's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Palencia CF 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Portugalete's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Barakaldo 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Portugalete arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Atlético Astorga and 1.2 for Portugalete. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Astorga 23%, draw 58%, Portugalete 19%.
Safer route: Atlético Astorga or draw (81%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Draw at 3.00 – 58% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atlético Astorga or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Portugalete. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Astorga23%fair 4.44 · @2.40
Draw58%fair 1.72 · @3.00
Portugalete19%fair 5.14 · @2.75
2.43Expected goals
1.24Atlético Astorga xG
1.18Portugalete xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 1.2 – 1.2 Portugalete expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
58%
1.72
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Atlético Astorga or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Astorga / FT Atlético Astorga✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.69
–
Form
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LWDLDW
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ La Bañeza
0–2
L
3 May
@ UD Ourense
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Sarriana
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Portugalete – last 6
WWWDWD
14 Aug
vs Barakaldo
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Eibar III
4–2
W
1 Apr
vs Durango
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Aretxabaleta
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Zamudio
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santurtzi
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Astorga and Portugalete.
What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Our pick is Atlético Astorga or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Portugalete 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Portugalete, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete?
Atlético Astorga vs Portugalete (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
