Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Nesebar to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNesebar to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceNesebar or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.00
Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad preview and prediction
The match
Pirin Blagoevgrad travel to Gradski stadion in the Second League on Sunday 23 August (16:00 WAT) to face Nesebar. Nesebar are 14th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Pirin Blagoevgrad sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nesebar's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Sportist Svoge 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pirin Blagoevgrad's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Hebar 1918 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Nesebar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Nesebar and 0.9 for Pirin Blagoevgrad. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score in 46% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Nesebar to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nesebar 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nesebar65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.30
Pirin Blagoevgrad14%fair 6.94 · @5.00
3.00Expected goals
2.11Nesebar xG
0.89Pirin Blagoevgrad xG
46%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Nesebar 2.1 – 0.9 Pirin Blagoevgrad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nesebar to win✓
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Nesebar or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
2.08 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Nesebar ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nesebar / FT Nesebar✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.00
–
Form
Nesebar – last 6
WWLLDW
16 Aug
@ Sportist Svoge
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs Dobrudzha
2–0
W
4 Aug
@ Montana
1–3
L
25 Jul
vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1–5
L
8 Jul
@ Spartak Varna
1–1
D
13 May
@ Maritsa Plovdiv
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pirin Blagoevgrad – last 6
LLLLLL
18 Aug
vs Hebar 1918
2–3
L
9 Aug
@ Sportist Svoge
0–1
L
3 Aug
vs CSKA Sofia II
0–3
L
28 Jul
@ Dobrudzha
1–5
L
23 May
@ Fratria
0–3
L
11 May
@ Sportist Svoge
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nesebar and Pirin Blagoevgrad.
What is the prediction for Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Our pick is Nesebar to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
On our numbers Nesebar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Pirin Blagoevgrad 14%.
How many goals will there be in Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Our predicted score is Nesebar 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
