Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcorcon to win ✗58% · @1.80
Double chanceAlcorcon or draw ✗82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.63
Teruel vs Alcorcon preview and prediction
The match
Teruel host Alcorcon in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Pinilla. Teruel are 20th with 7 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Alcorcon sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Teruel's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Zaragoza 1–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Alcorcon's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Juventud Torremolinos 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcorcon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Teruel and 1.7 for Alcorcon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Teruel 18%, draw 23%, Alcorcon 58%.
Safer route: Alcorcon or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alcorcon to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Teruel 0–1 Alcorcon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Teruel18%fair 5.47 · @4.33
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90
Alcorcon58%fair 1.71 · @1.80
2.58Expected goals
0.85Teruel xG
1.73Alcorcon xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Teruel 0.8 – 1.7 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✗
58%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Alcorcon or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.63
–
Form
Teruel – last 6
LDLLLD
4 Oct
@ Zaragoza
1–4
L
27 Sep
vs Huesca
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Rayo Majadahonda
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Real Jaén
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Real Murcia
0–4
L
31 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcorcon – last 6
WWWDDD
3 Oct
vs Juventud Torremolinos
5–0
W
27 Sep
@ Real Madrid II
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Gimnastic
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ Antequera
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Europa Fc
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Águilas
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Teruel and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Alcorcon to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Teruel vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Teruel have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alcorcon 58%.
How many goals will there be in Teruel vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Teruel vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Teruel 0–1 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Teruel vs Alcorcon?
Teruel vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Pinilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
