Primera División RFEF Group 2 · SpainReal Madrid II vs Alcorcon prediction & analysis
Real Madrid II or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Real Madrid II to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Real Madrid II 1.2 – 0.6 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Madrid II hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 22% for Alcorcon.
Real Madrid II have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Alcorcon have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 1.8 goals (1.2 for Real Madrid II, 0.6 for Alcorcon). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (21%), 0–0 (17%), 2–0 (12%).
Our pick is Real Madrid II or draw at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Real Madrid II to win at 1.91 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Madrid II to win ✗ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Real Madrid II or draw ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Madrid II / FT Real Madrid II ✗ | 30% | 3.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 21% | 4.81 | – |
Form
Real Madrid II – last 6
| 23 Sep | @ Sant Andreu | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Águilas | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Juventud Torremolinos | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Teruel | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Atlético Baleares | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | vs Zamora | 0–1 | L |
Alcorcon – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Gimnastic | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Antequera | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Europa Fc | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Águilas | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Aug | @ Unionistas de Salamanca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Mérida AD | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid II and Alcorcon.
Primera División RFEF Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaragoza | 11 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Villarreal II | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Murcia | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 |  Real Jaén | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Alcorcon | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ibiza | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Hércules | 11 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 |  FC Cartagena | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Madrid II | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Huesca | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 |  Gimnastic | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Antequera | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Algeciras | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Sant Andreu | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atlético Madrid II | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 |  Europa Fc | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 |  Águilas | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juventud Torremolinos | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 |  Rayo Majadahonda | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 |  Teruel | 11 | -13 | 7 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon?
Our pick is Real Madrid II or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Real Madrid II have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alcorcon 22%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon?
Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.