Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Algeciras to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlgeciras to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceAlgeciras or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Algeciras vs Águilas preview and prediction
The match
Algeciras host Águilas in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. Algeciras are 13th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Águilas sit 17th on 9 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Algeciras's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Gimnastic 2–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Águilas's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Real Madrid II 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Águilas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for Algeciras and 1.1 for Águilas. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Algeciras to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Algeciras or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Algeciras 2–1 Águilas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Algeciras63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @2.88
Águilas15%fair 6.82 · @3.70
3.33Expected goals
2.27Algeciras xG
1.06Águilas xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Algeciras 2.3 – 1.1 Águilas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✗
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Algeciras or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Algeciras ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Form
Algeciras – last 6
LLLDDL
11 Sep
@ Gimnastic
2–4
L
4 Sep
@ Villarreal II
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs FC Cartagena
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
1–1
D
1 May
vs FC Cartagena
2–2
D
12 Apr
@ Villarreal II
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Águilas – last 6
WLDWDW
12 Sep
vs Real Madrid II
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Sant Andreu
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–0
W
24 May
vs Poblense
0–0
D
17 May
vs Utebo
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Águilas.
Our pick is Algeciras or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Algeciras vs Águilas?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Águilas 15%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Águilas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Águilas?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 2–1 Águilas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Águilas?
Algeciras vs Águilas (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
