Primera División RFEF Group 2 · Spain · Estadio Municipal de Santo DomingoAlcorcon vs Gimnastic prediction & analysis
Alcorcon or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Alcorcon to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.7 – 0.7 Gimnastic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alcorcon are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 16% for Gimnastic.
Alcorcon have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Gimnastic have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. Gimnastic come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.7 for Alcorcon, 0.7 for Gimnastic). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Alcorcon or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Alcorcon to win at 1.85 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alcorcon to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Alcorcon or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon ✓ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.21 | – |
Form
Alcorcon – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Antequera | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Europa Fc | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Águilas | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Aug | @ Unionistas de Salamanca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Mérida AD | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Aug | vs Rayo Majadahonda | 1–1 | D |
Gimnastic – last 6
| 11 Sep | vs Algeciras | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ FC Cartagena | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Zaragoza | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Espanyol II | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Aug | vs Huesca | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Gimnastic.
Primera División RFEF Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaragoza | 11 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Villarreal II | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Murcia | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 |  Real Jaén | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Alcorcon | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ibiza | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Hércules | 11 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 |  FC Cartagena | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Madrid II | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Huesca | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 |  Gimnastic | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Antequera | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Algeciras | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Sant Andreu | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atlético Madrid II | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 |  Europa Fc | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 |  Águilas | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juventud Torremolinos | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 |  Rayo Majadahonda | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 |  Teruel | 11 | -13 | 7 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
Our pick is Alcorcon or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gimnastic 16%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
Alcorcon vs Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.