Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win49% · @1.83
Double chancePonferradina or draw81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals69% · @1.57
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–021% · fair 4.84
Ponferradina vs Cacereño preview and prediction
The match
Ponferradina host Cacereño in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Friday 13 November, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Ponferradina are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Cacereño sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Cultural Leonesa 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Cacereño's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Lugo 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Cacereño 0–0 Ponferradina.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.0 for Ponferradina and 0.6 for Cacereño. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 goals – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ponferradina 1–0 Cacereño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponferradina49%fair 2.03 · @1.83
Draw31%fair 3.18 · @3.10
Cacereño19%fair 5.19 · @3.90
1.60Expected goals
1.02Ponferradina xG
0.58Cacereño xG
44%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–020%
1–112%
0–112%
2–011%
2–16%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.0 – 0.6 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Ponferradina
Cacereño
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-35%
-28%
Goals conceded vs average
-40%
-18%
Our expected goals here
0.74
0.47
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Cacereño 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Cacereño?
Ponferradina vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
