Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLugo to win ✓41% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Lugo vs UD Logroñés preview and prediction
The match
Lugo host UD Logroñés in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Anxo Carro. Lugo are 1st with 28 points from 11 games (top of the table), while UD Logroñés sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Lugo's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Real Avilés 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Logroñés's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Deportivo La Coruña II 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Lugo and 1.3 for UD Logroñés. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugo 41%, draw 26%, UD Logroñés 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lugo 1–1 UD Logroñés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugo41%fair 2.44 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.80
UD Logroñés33%fair 3.00 · @2.80
2.83Expected goals
1.50Lugo xG
1.33UD Logroñés xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.5 – 1.3 UD Logroñés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
41%
2.44
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.30
–
Form
Lugo – last 6
WWWWDW
2 Oct
@ Real Avilés
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs CD Coria
1–0
W
4 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UD Logroñés – last 6
WWDWWW
4 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Mérida AD
5–3
W
18 Sep
vs Pontevedra
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ UD Ourense
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and UD Logroñés.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
On our numbers Lugo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and UD Logroñés 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 UD Logroñés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs UD Logroñés?
Lugo vs UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
