Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: UD Logroñés to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Logroñés to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceUD Logroñés or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.93
UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra preview and prediction
The match
Pontevedra travel to Estadio Las Gaunas in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Friday 18 September (20:00 WAT) to face UD Logroñés. UD Logroñés are 2nd with 23 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Pontevedra sit 3rd on 18 points (in the top four).
Form guide
UD Logroñés's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat UD Ourense 3–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pontevedra's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Athletic Club II 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
UD Logroñés arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for UD Logroñés and 1.0 for Pontevedra. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Logroñés 63%, draw 23%, Pontevedra 14%.
Safer route: UD Logroñés or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Value angle: UD Logroñés to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was UD Logroñés or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: UD Logroñés 2–0 Pontevedra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Logroñés63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @2.90
Pontevedra14%fair 7.09 · @3.90
3.17Expected goals
2.19UD Logroñés xG
0.98Pontevedra xG
58%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: UD Logroñés 2.2 – 1.0 Pontevedra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Logroñés to win✗
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
UD Logroñés or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
UD Logroñés ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UD Logroñés / FT UD Logroñés✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.93
–
Form
UD Logroñés – last 6
WWWWWL
12 Sep
@ UD Ourense
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Huesca II
4–0
W
21 Aug
vs Mirandes
4–0
W
14 Aug
vs Zaragoza
1–2
L
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Pontevedra – last 6
LWWLWW
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
19 Aug
@ Coruxo
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Ourense CF
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Estradense
5–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Logroñés and Pontevedra.
What is the prediction for UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra?
Our pick is UD Logroñés or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra?
On our numbers UD Logroñés have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pontevedra 14%.
How many goals will there be in UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra?
Our predicted score is UD Logroñés 2–0 Pontevedra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra?
UD Logroñés vs Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Las Gaunas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
