La Liga · Spain · Estadio de MestallaValencia vs Villarreal prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Value bet: Villarreal to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Valencia 1.1 – 1.5 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Villarreal shade it despite being away from home – 50% to win, against 30% for Valencia.
Valencia have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. Villarreal have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. Villarreal come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.1 for Valencia, 1.5 for Villarreal). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Valencia have won 0, Villarreal have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is close to our fair price of 1.63. For a bigger price, Villarreal to win at 2.15 is our value angle (50% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Villarreal to win ✓ | 50% | 2.01 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal ✗ | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 8.94 | – |
Form
Valencia – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Racing Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Alaves | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
Villarreal – last 6
| 20 Oct | @ Liverpool | 3–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Napoli | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Levante | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | @ Malaga | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Villarreal v Valencia | 2–1 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Valencia have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villarreal 50%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.