Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Madrid to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the La Liga on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid are 3rd with 28 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Real Madrid sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Osasuna 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Real Madrid's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Elche 3–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Real Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.6 for Atletico Madrid and 1.9 for Real Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Madrid 35%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Madrid35%fair 2.88 · @3.20
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.90
Real Madrid46%fair 2.16 · @2.00
3.58Expected goals
1.65Atletico Madrid xG
1.93Real Madrid xG
67%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
1–36%
0–15%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.6 – 1.9 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✗
46%
2.16
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWLLWD
16 Sep
vs Osasuna
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Liverpool
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WWWLWW
15 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Inter
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Real Betis
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Malaga
4–0
W
26 Aug
vs Real Sociedad
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Real Madrid 46%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
