La Liga · Spain · Estadio MendizorrotzaAlaves vs Osasuna prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.95 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Osasuna to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alaves 0.9 – 0.7 Osasuna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alaves hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 33% for Osasuna.
Alaves have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.3 per game. Osasuna have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Alaves come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.7 goals (0.9 for Alaves, 0.7 for Osasuna). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (19%), 1–0 (17%), 0–1 (14%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alaves have won 0, Osasuna have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is close to our fair price of 1.95. For a bigger price, Osasuna to win at 3.40 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alaves to win ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 26% | 3.80 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.77 | – |
Form
Alaves – last 6
| 28 Aug | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Racing Santander | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Castellón | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Girona | 1–0 | W |
Osasuna – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | @ Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Al Ain | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Aug | @ Napoli | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Norwich | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 2026 | Alaves v Osasuna | 2–2 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
On our numbers Alaves have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Osasuna 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Osasuna?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves vs Osasuna (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.