Value bet: Alaves to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win ✗41% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.45
Alaves vs Villarreal preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Alaves take on Villarreal on Friday 28 August, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio de Mendizorroza. Alaves are 12th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Villarreal sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alaves's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Rayo Vallecano 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarreal's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Atletico Madrid 2–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 March 2026, finished Alaves 1–1 Villarreal.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Alaves and 1.6 for Villarreal. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 64%.
Value angle: Alaves to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Alaves 1–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alaves36%fair 2.78 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.50
Villarreal41%fair 2.42 · @2.18
3.02Expected goals
1.45Alaves xG
1.57Villarreal xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.4 – 1.6 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alaves vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Alaves have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Villarreal 41%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Villarreal?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
